2022 NFL Divisional Round Picks & Plays

Zack Nicol
4 min readJan 22, 2022


Divisional Round picks, plays and evaluation from me below. Sending all of this out on Saturday, but it’s possible I make changes for Sunday’s games after posting. I will identify that wherever necessary. Enjoy!

4:30 PM ET

Model Z Projection: TEN -3, 53.65 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tennessee Titans
Spread Pick: CIN +4⭐
O/U Pick: Over 47.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Mixon 100+ Rushing Yards & to score (+460)
- Mixon over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
- Burrow to score [non passing] (+500)
- Burrow over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Boyd over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- AJ Brown over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Firkser to score (+380)
CIN Notable Inactives: N/A
TEN Notable Inactives: N/A
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Both of these AFC games are the toughest of the bunch in my opinion. Cincy has looked great as of late, but almost exclusively because of Burrow and Chase last week. That was surprising to me, as I thought Mixon has the best matchup. This week, my model says the best matchup for them, again, is for Mixon. It’s tough though, because the Titans are actually 2nd in Rush Yards allowed, but their DLine and Linebackers are just eh when it comes to talent, with no players inside the top 20 of their positions (IDL, EDGE or LB). Their corners also are just eh, as Janoris “Jackrabbit” Jenkins is their best corner and he’s all the way down at 46. I don’t know. Love Henry being back, and I love Foreman even if Henry isn’t in a ton especially with their great OLine so I’ll take them to win. But I do think Cincy can keep it close if not win. I’ll go CIN +4.

8:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5.5) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: GB -5, 47.55 Total
Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers
Spread Pick: GB -5.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Elijah Mitchell under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Adams 100+ Receiving Yards (+108)
- Kittle to score (+200)
- Samuel over 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
- GB -5.5 (-110)
- GB -9.5 Alt Spread (+155)
- Lazard to score (+175)
- Aaron Jones Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
SF Notable Inactives: N/A
GB Notable Inactives: WR3 Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Questionable)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I played a weather stat for a QB last week and it didn’t work, but this one is nuts: Jimmy G (shoulder/thumb injury fyi) has NEVER played in a game less than 40 degrees. WOW. Dude, the forecast is 10 degrees, feels like -4. That’s literally all I needed to see to know they will cover this easy. Right?

3:00 PM ET

Model Z Projection: TB -2.5, 50.88 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: TB -3⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 48.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Gronkowski to score (+100)
- Stafford under 277.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Akers under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Donald over 3.5 Tackles (-110)
- Beckham to score (+165)
LAR Notable Inactives: LT Andrew Whitworth
TB Notable Inactives: RB2 Ronald Jones
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: So it’s pretty crazy, or maybe not at all, that the 4 best QBs in the game are in this divisional round. Rodgers, Brady, Allen and Mahomes, and there’s no debate that those are the 4 right? I think if you asked 10 people, I bet only 3 people would agree on an order. I love it. I say this because my argument for Tom being #1 is that he can pick you apart before they snap the ball, no matter what receivers he has out there. The lack of receivers is again the weakness of this team at the moment (WR depth used to be their strength), but I don’t see it as a problem because of what Tom can do. This Rams D is surprisingly not great and the Safeties are still missing, so I think Tom takes care of it. -3 is the perfect number for this game, and that’s why it’s so tough, but LAR LT Whitworth being out finalized my decision. TB -3 please.

6:30 PM ET

Model Z Projection: KC -2, 51.17 Total
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: KC -1.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 53.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- BUF 1st Quarter ML (+104)
- Edwards-Helaire to score (+175)
- Pringle over 32.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Kelce to score (-110)
- Josh Allen to score (+145)
- Josh Allen & Mahomes to both pass for 300+ Yards (+385)
BUF Notable Inactives: N/A
KC Notable Inactives: N/A
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Here’s that other tough AFC matchup as I mentioned before. Where are the weaknesses for these teams? For the Bills, I think it’s their OLine and their average cornerbacks (people forget that Tre’ White is out, name one CB, go!). For the Chiefs, I guess it’s their IDL and EDGE depth. I find the OLine and Corners a much bigger problem, don’t you? I’ll go Chiefs, but I don’t love it. Hope it’s a great game at Arrowhead!



Zack Nicol

Geaux Tigers. Go Mavs. Go Pats. Go Stars. Go Rangers. Go BlueClaws.