NFL Conference Championship: Picks & Plays
See below for my Conference Championship picks, plays and evaluation! Let’s party with props, why not?! Hoping for some great games here.
3:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI BENGALS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) ; O/U 54.5
Model Z Projection: KC -5.5, 55.28 Total
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: CIN +7.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 54.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Chris Jones sack (-126)
- Melvin Ingram sack (+225)
- Mixon over 3.5 receptions (-110)
- Mixon over 31.5 Receiving yards (-110)
- Perine to score 1st TD (+3900)
- Kelce to score (-135)
- Mahomes over 328.5 Passing & Rushing yards (-110)
- Burrow under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
- Boyd over 39.5 Receiving yards (-110)
- McPherson over 6.5 Points (-120)
- McPherson over 1.5 FG’s (-110)
- KC 1st Half over 15.5 Points (-110)
- KC 1st Quarter -2.5 (-110)
- KC 1st Half -4.5 (-110)
CIN Notable Inactives: CIN EDGE Cam Sample
KC Notable Inactives: N/A
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Now that this spread over the 7, I’m sure everyone will be all over the Bengals spread here. That’s what scares me. You’ve heard it all from me before in my analysis of these two teams. Both offenses are electric, the KC secondary is better than you think, the KC OLine is elite and the Bengals Oline has some serious holes. I’ll be paying extra attention on 3 guys in the matchup: KC DL Chris Jones, KC EDGE Melvin Ingram, and rookie KC LB Nick Bolton. If those guys can’t take over the game against a weak Cincy OLine, I think the Bengals can pull off what America wants to see.
Fun fact: Joe Burrow as an underdog of 3+ points this year… 5–0 straight up.
6:30 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: LAR PICK EM, 49.25 Total
Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Spread Pick: SF +3.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Akers under 62.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Samuel over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Kupp to score & over 70 yards (+113)
- Kittle to score (+175)
- Matt Gay over 1.5 FGs (-105)
- Aaron Donald over 4.5 tackles (-115)
SF Notable Inactives: N/A
LAR Notable Inactives: N/A
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This is the first time all playoffs that I felt better about a total than a pick, and I think I’m alone on this one. Both teams have great OLines and average corners. Sure, Ramsey is really good, but he have been exposed as of late and I’m not sure that he’s the best in the league anymore. Now, it’s tough to find a top 5 these days at that position, but Ramsey is definitely beatable and has had the reputation of unbeatable. I also don’t see him shadowing Deebo or anything, and his expertise is to lockdown a guy right? Ugh I’ve been set on LAR -3.5, but I’m thinking about changing my spread pick mid-paragraph here. I really like Fred Warner to keep the run game in check, and the Rams don’t have any LB’s to do the same for them. Time to switch. SF +3.5, Over 45.5