NFL MNF Picks & Plays! Seahawks at Eagles
See below for my picks, plays, Model Z breakdown and explanation for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Seahawks and Eagles
*Stars represent confidence (1 to 5 scale).
Please note that I am not advising anyone to participate in any gambling. I am simply telling you what I will be doing (legally in New Jersey).
Monday, November 30
8:15 PM ET
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ; O/U 48.5
Model Z Projection: 29–21 SEA
Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Spread Pick: SEA -6.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 48.5⭐
Zack’s Plays: Keeping the MNF tradition going, here are a handful (instead of a few) of my plays!
- Chris Carson to score / SEA to win DOUBLE (+145)
- Tyler Lockett to score 2x (+600)
- Tyler Lockett to score 3x (+3300)
- Metcalf Over 28.5 Longest Reception (-113)
- SEA ML (-240)
- Wilson Under 287.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Dallas Goedert Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Jalen Hurts to score LAST (+2500)
Top DFS Matchups: Chris Carson ($5,900), Dallas Goedert ($4,200), Jalen Hurts ($5,000)
Notable Injuries: PHI TE Zach Ertz
Notes: A battle of the birds on Monday Night Football, let’s do this!
For your dose of Model Z data, The Seahawks are 6th Overall in the Model and face the 18th ranked Eagles. The Seahawks are carried almost exclusively through the offense which is 3rd overall powered by MVP candidate Russell Wilson. This Seahawks team is becoming healthier and healthier and as I’ve said in previous articles…watch out! This defense has been bad, but I blame the injuries. When it comes to injuries, the Eagles know them well. They are also almost fully healthy for the exception of LT Lane Johnson who is done for the year. Apparently PHI TE1 Zach Ertz was scheduled to be activated off the IR but might need to wait another week. On a healthier note, there has been a lot of talk about 2nd Round Oklahoma WR/QB Jalen Hurts possibly taking more snaps at QB on Monday night. That doesn’t really effect my thoughts on who will win the game, but it will be intriguing to watch!
For the matchup, from a defensive POV, I think the key to beat the Eagles is to get to Carson Wentz, and I think this 4th Ranked Pre-StatRanks defense can do that. [StatRanks are included into the normal ratings based on previous game totals, and with the Seahawks injury situation, I thought it would be worth mentioning what their defense might look like Pre-StatRanks.] But from the Offensive POV, the Seahawks Offensive Line (22nd in Model Z) is not great and the Eagles D-Line (3rd) is elite so I do fear that Russ might not have the time he needs. I’m taking the Seahawks to win on Monday Night and will give the -6.5, but if it gets to -7 I’m out.
For player matchups, I’ve found four matchups to go for!
1. The Eagles have a good DLine (3rd) but aren’t very good against the run (27th) so I’m looking at a big Chris Carson night in his return.
2. Philly are 23rd against the TE in the Model Z, but the Seahawks don’t throw to the Tight End much in the endzone so we can’t do much here
3. The weakness in the Philly secondary are the safeties. And guess who likes to go over the top? DK Metcalf. DK is 1st in WR air yards for the 2020 Season. The question is if Wilson will have enough time to throw it that far.
4. Lastly, which partially counters the matchup above, the Eagles (not positive here to be honest), play a good amount of man-to-man defense. And guess who has the best games against man-to-man? Tyler Lockett. Known for his 2+ touchdown games against man defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see it again even against good corners.
Looking ahead, would it be crazy to say the win out and steal the top NFC seed away from the Taysom Hill Saints? Here’s the schedule: Eagles, Giants, Jets, Washington… that’s 4–0 right? Then the Rams at home and the Niners. Tough 2 final games for sure but I’d take the Hawks over them too. Keep an eye on that important race for the Round 1 BYE.