NFL Week 13 — Sunday Picks & Plays

Picks, Evaluation and Guest pickers below. Enjoy! Hit me up if you’d like to be a guest picker for the Monday game!

🔒LOCK OFF🔒

Craig Ebinger and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called 🔒LOCK OFF🔒! 4 of our favorite spreads, facing off to see who wins the week. Week 5 of this segment starttsssssss now.
Craig’s Locks: IND -9.5, PIT +4.5, DEN +9.5, SF -3.5
Zack’s Locks: TB -10.5, IND -9.5, SEA +3.5, LV -1.5
Weekly Wins: 2–1–1 Craig
Season Totals:
6–4 Craig

1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-10.5) at ATLANTA FALCONS ; O/U 50.5

Model Z Projection: TB -16, 53.19 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: TB -10.5⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 50.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Brady over 2.5 Passing TDs (+100)
- Fournette 70+ Rushing Yards (+128)
- Fournette to score & TB -10. (+154)
- Godwin 80+ Receiving Yards (+132)
- Godwin to score 2x (+650)
- TB -10.5 (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Remember when the only weakness of this team was their cornerback group (via injuries)? Well they’re back.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Brittany Nicol:
ATL ML (+370)

1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7.5) at CHICAGO BEARS ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: ARI -13.5, 51.47 Total
Straight Up Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Spread Pick: ARI -7.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- James Conner to score (+110)
- Kirk to score (+340)
- Moore to score (+430)
- Ertz to score (+220)
- Ertz to score 2x (+1800)
- Mooney over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: If Kyler [& Hopkins] plays, it’s over. I think they’ll play. If Kyler doesn’t play, I’ll take Dalton and the Bears points wherever that spread ends up.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁

1:00 PM ET
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) ; O/U 49.5

Model Z Projection: CIN -4.5, 53.31 Total
Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Pick: CIN -3⭐
O/U Pick: Over 49.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Mixon 100+ Rushing Yards (+114)
- Mixon to score & CIN ML (+140)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Game of the day for me! If LAC CB2 Samuel was playing, it’d be tougher for me, but I don’t think the Chargers have the corners to guard these Cincy weapons. I’ll take Cincy -3.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
LAC +3 and Over 49.5
Brittany Nicol: CIN -3 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7) at DETROIT LIONS ; O/U 46.5

Model Z Projection: MIN -7, 55.83 Total
Straight Up Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Spread Pick: MIN -7⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 46.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- CJ Ham to score (+1200)
- Cousins 300+ Passing Yards (+154)
- Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards (+158)
- Conklin over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Hockenson to score (+220)
- Hockenson 50+ Receiving Yards (+136)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Minny loses RB1 Cook, their star LB Kendricks and CB1 Patrick Peterson, but gets back their dominant interior DLine in Tomlinson, Pierce and Watts. If they can contain Jamaal Williams inside the tackles, I think they dominate. Because that is all Detroit has with Swift out.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
Under 46.5 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
NEW YORK GIANTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6.5) ; O/U 39.5

Model Z Projection: MIA -5, 47.84 Total
Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins
Spread Pick: MIA -6.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 39.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Golladay to score (+270)
- Golladay 50+ receiving yards (+116)
- Gesicki to score (+260)
- Gesicki 60+ receiving yards (+225)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: It’s weird for me to confess that this Miami offense has been really turned it around, but they have. 4 Game win streak, and with their easy remaining schedule, I see that streak getting up to 8! Wow. The Giants will start Mike Glennon and I think he has a tough day, MIA -6.5. Super low total by the way, wow.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁

1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5) at NEW YORK JETS ; O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: PHI -9.5, 52.10 Total
Straight Up Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Spread Pick: PHI -5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 43.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Goedert to score (+160)
- Sanders over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: It’s Minshew-mania again with Hurts unlikely to play, and I trust the model here (projects -9.5). I think Zach Wilson has a long day against Cox, Hargrave, Slay and this defense.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
Under 43.5 (-110)
Finley Nicol 🐶: PHI -5 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10) at HOUSTON TEXANS ; O/U 44.5

Model Z Projection: IND -11, 51.14 Total
Straight Up Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Spread Pick: IND -10⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 44.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Jonathan Taylor to score 2x (+185)
- Jonathan Taylor 100+ Rushing Yards & IND to win (-121)
- Burkhead to score (+300)
- Alie-Cox to score (+380)
- Brevin Jordan to score (+600)
- Wentz over 238.5 passing yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tyrod being back was fun for a minute, but we’re back to reality officially now, right? 10 on the road in a division game is a lot, but this Houston defense is 31st in Rushing Yards Allowed and 31st in Rushing Touchdowns allowed. In comes the best RB in the game right now, Jonathan Taylor. I don’t think he slows down in a division game. IND by double digits.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
Taylor to score & win
Craig Ebinger: IND -9.5 (-110)

4:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-1.5) ; O/U 48

Model Z Projection: LV -6, 47.01 Total
Straight Up Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Spread Pick: LV -1.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 48⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Moreau to score (+180)
- Moreau 50+ Receiving yards (+198)
- Renfrow under 64.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Gibson over 92.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I don’t like that Waller is out, but I don’t like WAS LG Schweitzer, S Collins and RB2 McKissic out even more. Tough choice here, but I’ll go Raiders -1.5.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
WAS ML

4:25 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-13) ; O/U 48

Model Z Projection: LAR -19.5, 48.93 Total
Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Spread Pick: LAR -13⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Higbee to score (+185)
- Michel to score & LAR to win (-132)
- Beckham to score & LAR to win (+113)
- Beckham 50+ receiving yards (+102)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Look at that Model Z projection lol I still believe this Rams team is Super Bowl caliber, they just need to put it all together. The Jags are a good team to practice on at home.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Finley Nicol:
Beckham to score & LAR -13 (+213)

4:25 PM ET
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-4.5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS ; O/U 44

Model Z Projection: BAL -4, 50.08 Total
Straight Up Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Spread Pick: BAL -4.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 44⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Marquise Brown 70+ Receiving Yards (+114)
- Marquise Brown over 23.5 longest reception (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: PIT CB1 Haden is out again, and Big Ben basically announced that he’s retiring after this year. Anything can happen in a division game obviously, but I like Baltimore’s chances a lot as long as their lengthy “questionable” list on the injury report all stay active (all 3 starting CBs & Patrick Queen to name a few)
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Craig Ebinger:
PIT +4.5 (-110)

4:25 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3.5) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ; O/U 45.5

Model Z Projection: SF -.5, 48.26 Total
Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Spread Pick: SEA +3.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 45.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- SEA +3.5 (-110)
- SEA ML (+150)
- Garoppolo to throw INT (+130)
- Lockett under 4.5 receptions (+106)
- Aiyuk 70+ receiving yards (+128)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I have a tendency to base too much on the injury report, but seriously, your star offensive player (WR Deebo Samuel) is out, and so are a handful of your top defensive playmakers (IDL Hurst, LB Greenlaw and LB Warner). Seattle has been absolutely horrific, but I think they actually rise from the dead in a division game at home and cover this spread. Sprinkle the moneyline as well.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Craig Ebinger:
SF -3.5 (-110)
Finley Nicol🐶: Wilson 300+ Passing Yards & SEA win (+1238)
Brittany Nicol: Garoppolo 250+ Passing Yards (+132)

8:20 PM ET
DENVER BRONCOS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9) ; O/U 47

Model Z Projection: KC -5.5, 53.16 Total
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: DEN +9⭐
O/U Pick: Under 47⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Javonte Williams to score (+100)
- Javonte Williams to score 2x (+700)
- Javonte Williams over 104.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
- Javonte Williams over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I think we have a breakout game by Denver rookie RB Javonte Williams with Melvin Gordon out, but I don’t think they win the game. Can they cover the 9? I’m going to say yes, but with very low confidence.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Adam Polsky:
DEN +9.5 (-110)
Craig Ebinger: DEN +9.5 (-110)

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Zack Nicol

Zack Nicol

Geaux Tigers. Go Mavs. Go Pats. Go Stars. Go Rangers. Go BlueClaws.