NFL Week 14 — Sunday Picks & Plays

Picks, plays and evaluation below. Guest pickers are spread throughout the article. Hit me up if you’d like to be a guest picker for the Monday game!

🔒LOCK OFF🔒

Craig Ebinger and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called 🔒LOCK OFF🔒! 4 of our favorite spreads, facing off to see who wins the week. Let’s do it!
Craig’s Locks: CIN +2, GB -12.5, WAS +4.5, LAC -9.5
Zack’s Locks: DAL -4.5, CIN +1.5, TB -3.5, CHI +12
Weekly Wins coming into Week 14: 2–2–1 Tied
Season Totals coming into Week 14:
8–7 Craig

1:00 PM ET
BALTIMORE RAVENS at CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: CLE -5, 51.53 Total
Straight Up Pick: Cleveland Browns
Spread Pick: CLE -2.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Peoples-Jones 50+ Receiving Yards (+188)
- Peoples Jones to score & CLE to win (+423)
- Landry 60+ Receiving Yards (-114)
- Hooper over 3.5 receptions (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tough to back this Ravens team as it feels like they’ve lost a handful in a row, but in reality, they’ve won 3 of their last 5. One of those wins came against their opponent this week, the Browns in Cleveland just 2 weeks ago. I like the Browns at home in this spot though. They’re the better team when healthy.

1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at TENNESSEE TITANS (-8.5) ; O/U 43.5

Model Z Projection: TEN -4.5, 51.58 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tennessee Titans
Spread Pick: TEN -8.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 43.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Foreman 60+ Rushing Yards (+100)
- Foreman to score (+130)
- Foreman to score 2x (+900)
- Robinson over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Lawrence over 215.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This Titans team has a lot of work to do if they want to stay in playoff contention while they hope Derrick Henry and AJ Brown heal up soon. Should be able to do that against this Jaguars punching bag at home. By the way, make an effort today to watch TEN RB D’Onta Foreman. He’s had to deal with injuries over the past few years of his young career, but he runs hard and looks ready good. I like a big game out of him today.

1:00 PM ET
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: KC -5.5, 52.24 Total
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: LV +10⭐
O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Mahomes over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I like this healthy Chiefs team against most teams right now, but 10 points is too many in a division game against an underrated Raiders team. Being without Waller hurts for sure and I get the spread, but it’s too many for me. These Raiders corners are very underrated according to PFF Hobbs 7th, Hayward 14th and Mullen who is in line to return this week, so it’s tough for me to make many plays this week.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Colby Cheneval:
Hill 100+ Receiving Yards (+198)

1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5) at NEW YORK JETS ; O/U 43

Model Z Projection: NO -10, 49.01 Total
Straight Up Pick: New Orleans Saints
Spread Pick: NO -5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 43⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Kamara to score 2x (+400)
- Nick Vannett to score (+460)
- Taysom Hill to score 2x (+1300)
- NO -3 1st Half Spread (-110)
- NO over 23.5 points (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: The poor Jets will be without 3 of their 4 primary offseason acquisitions this week (WR1 Corey Davis, WR3* Elijah Moore and RB1 Michael Carter), but did they really have a chance this week anyways? Yes it’s Taysom Hill who is more of a fantasy QB than a startable NFL QB, but Kamara is back so the Jets shouldn’t be a problem. I’ll take the Saints by 5+ but with low confidence because star DLineman Cam Jordan is out.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Colby Cheneval:
Kamara to score 2x (+400)
Keith Sullivan: NO -5 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM ; O/U 48

Model Z Projection: DAL -10, 53.23 Total
Straight Up Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Spread Pick: DAL -4.5⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Elliott over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- DAL -4.5 (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I’d be curious to see what teams I get wrong the most (I’m too lazy to actually go back and look), but I’d assume Washington is one of those teams. They have no business being 6–6 and in a playoff spot. Dallas does though. Their defense is getting healthy, and so is their offense. I’ll go Cowboys with medium confidence.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Colby Cheneval:
DAL -4.5 (-110)
Greg Giombarrese: WSH +5.5 (-110)
Keith Sullivan: WSH ML (+215)

1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-2.5) ; O/U 41.5

Model Z Projection: CAR -4.5, 46.96 Total
Straight Up Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Spread Pick: ATL +2.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 41.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Hubbard 70+ Rushing Yards (+140)
- Patterson under 14.5 Carries (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This Panthers team is a mess. Cam “me, me, me, it’s all about me” Newton at QB, no McCaff and now Joe Brady got canned. This might be the first time I’ve done this all year, but I’ll take the Falcons straight up.

1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-8.5) at HOUSTON TEXANS ; O/U 40.5

Model Z Projection: SEA -9, 49.15 Total
Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Spread Pick: SEA -8.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 40.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Brandin Cooks over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Metcalf over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Wilson over 237.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I will not pick Davis Mills in a football game. Also in an under the radar move, the Texans released one of their best defensive players, Zach Cunningham, this week. The Seahawks are laughable, but the Texans are hilarious.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Colby Cheneval:
Wilson over 1.5 Passing TDs (-130)

4:05 PM ET
DETROIT LIONS at DENVER BRONCOS (-10.5) ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: DEN -16.5, 51.37 Total
Straight Up Pick: Denver Broncos
Spread Pick: DEN -10.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Javonte Williams to score (-115)
- Jerry Jeudy to score (+185)
- Jerry Jeudy 80+ Receiving Yards (+320)
- Josh Reynolds over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Okwuegnunam to score (+460)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Every time you think the Lions might have momentum (if you want to call it that), the Injury report pops up. RB1, RB2, CB1* and possibly TE1 will all be out. 10.5 is a lot, but surprisingly, Teddy B and the Broncos have gone over 20 points more than you think (6/12). I think they blow out the Aidan Hutchinson’s in Mile High.

4:05 PM ET
NEW YORK GIANTS at LA CHARGERS (-9) ; O/U 43

Model Z Projection: LAC -5, 52.95 Total
Straight Up Pick: LA Chargers
Spread Pick: NYG +9⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 43⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Barkley to score (+145)
- Barkley to score 2x (+145)
- Barkley 80+ Rushing Yards (+235)
- Ekeler 80+ Rushing Yards (+235)
- Parham to score (+500)
- Mike Williams over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I thought about forgetting about the past and just reevaluate these teams like it’s Week 1, then I remembered that Daniel Jones is out again so it’s either Jake Fromm or Mike Glennon under center. Both teams have their CB2 out (Asante Samuel and Adoree Jackson) and both have top receivers out (Keenan Allen and Kadarius Toney). I’ll take the Chargers to win for sure, but that 9 is scary. I’ll go Giants +9 with a Saquon breakout game against this baaaaad Chargers run D.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Keith Sullivan:
LAC -9 (-110)

4:25 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-1.5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS ; O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: SF -0.5, 50.54 Total
Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Pick: CIN +1.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- CIN +1.5 (-110)
- [2X BET] CIN ML (+114)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tough one here at first glance, but I think the wrong team is favored. Feels like a trap, but I feel best about this Cincy spread more than any other game this week. The Niners are missing players all around again, and could be without Deebo again. Fully healthy I think this is the right spread, but they’re not. Bengals Fort Knox as Craig would say.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kyle Brockman:
Mixon to score 2x (+500), Chase to score 2x (+800), Samuel to score 2x (+850)
Greg Giombarrese: SF -1.5 (-110)

4:25 PM ET
BUFFALO BILLS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) ; O/U 53.5

Model Z Projection: TB -2, 50.50 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: TB -3.5⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 53.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- TB -3.5 (-110)
- Josh Allen under 295.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Game of the week here. Like I said last week, this Tampa defense has got healthy and I don’t think people realize it yet. The cornerback group was the one weakness of this team and they’re back. Now, they will be without Safety Jordan Whitehead, so not fullllly healthy. Great game, but I still feel really good about Tampa here. Bill v Brady Super Bowl coming.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kyle Brockman:
Fournette Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Greg Giombarrese: BUF +3.5 (-110)

8:20 PM ET
CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12) ; O/U 43

Model Z Projection: GB -13.5, 47.44 Total
Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers
Spread Pick: CHI +12⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 43⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- CHI ML (+460)
- CHI +12 (-110)
- AJ Dillon over 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
- Adams 100+ Receiving yards (-110)
- Valdes-Scantling 70+ Receiving Yards (+360)
- Rodgers over 260.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I must be losing my mind at this point in the season, because for some reason I think the Bears can win this game. I think Justin Fields can be the guy for the Bears this year and beyond, and his initiation is to win one in Lambeau in December. I’ll take the the doubt digit points the Packers are giving and even sprinkle some moneyline.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kyle Brockman:
Rodgers over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+148)
Keith Sullivan: Rodgers over 2.5 Passing Tocuhdowns (+148)

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Zack Nicol

Zack Nicol

16 Followers

Geaux Tigers. Go Mavs. Go Pats. Go Stars. Go Rangers. Go BlueClaws.