NFL WEEK 17 — Sunday Picks & Plays

Sunday picks, plays and evaluation from me below. With the amount of inactives again this week, I’ve decided to just write out the positions & depth that will be out for the week. Hope that helps. Enjoy!

🔒LOCK OFF🔒

Craig Ebinger and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called 🔒LOCK OFF🔒! 4 of our favorite spreads, facing off to see who wins the week. Let’s do it!
Craig’s Locks: DAL -6, TB -12.5, IND -7, DEN +7.5
Zack’s Locks: PHI -4.5, LAR -6, DAL -6.5, NO -6.5
Weekly Wins coming into Week 17: 4–3–1 Craig
Season Totals coming into Week 17: 14–12 Craig

1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA FALCONS at BUFFALO BILLS (-14.5) ; O/U 44
Model Z Projection: BUF -17, 52.23 Total
Straight Up Pick: Buffalo Bills
Spread Pick: BUF -14.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 44⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Singletary to score (+100)
- Singletary over 55.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Gabriel Davis to score (+230)
- Dawson Knox 40+ Receiving yards (+140)
- Dawson Knox to score (+170)
- Josh Allen over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Patterson to score (+145)
- BUF 1st Half -6.5 (-110)
Notable ATL Depth Out: WR2, IDL3, LB3, CB2,*S1
Notable BUF Depth Out: NONE!
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I don’t see why Buffalo wouldn’t win this game obviously, but can they do it by more than two touchdowns? I’ll say yes, with the lack of Atlanta defense against Josh Allen who has to be pissed about not making the Pro Bowl. Also worth noting that Buffalo is one of only two teams (MIA the other) with a practically clean Inactive list.

1:00 PM ET
NEW YORK GIANTS at CHICAGO BEARS (-6) ; O/U 36.5
Model Z Projection: CHI -2.5, 51.76 Total
Straight Up Pick: Chicago Bears
Spread Pick: CHI -6⭐
O/U Pick: Under 36.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Montgomery to score (-120)
- Montgomery to score 2x (+450)
- Barkley to score (+190)
- Barkely over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Engram to score (+460)
Notable NYG Depth Out: QB1, WR2, WR3, WR4, WR5, C, IDL2
Notable CHI Depth Out: QB1, S2*
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This has to be the favorite to be the least watched game on the slate right? Both teams eliminated (1 of 2 games with this as the case with the other being DETvSEA), Andy Dalton vs Glennon/Fromm as the QB battle, and very few fantasy players to worry about. I’m going with the Bears for the pick, and I think I’ll lean Bears for the spread as well with that impressive NYG inactive list.

1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) at CINCINNATI BENGALS ; O/U 51
Model Z Projection: KC -5, 52.78 Total
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: KC -4⭐
O/U Pick: Under 51⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Kelce to score (-115)
- Kelce 80+ Receiving Yards (+122)
- Mixon over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Mixon to score (-110)
Notable KC Depth Out: RB1
Notable CIN Depth Out: LB1, CB3*
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: There are a few to choose from, but this game takes the top spot for game of the week for me. I’ve been harping on this one over the past few weeks, but I still don’t think people realize it. The Chiefs secondary is good. A group that used to be laughable, now have the #4, #7 and #18 CBs according to PFF. You need those against this top WR trio of Chase, Higgins and Boyd. I think they hold them in check, and the Chiefs win this one on the road by a TD, low confidence though because the Cincy defense isn’t too shabby either. I like the matchup for Kelce (CIN19th vTE in my model), so he’s my X-Factor for this game.

1:00 PM ET
MIAMI DOLPHINS at TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) ; O/U 39.5
Model Z Projection: MIA -.5, 44.74 Total
Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins
Spread Pick: MIA +3⭐
O/U Pick: Under 39.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Tannehill under 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Tannehill to throw INT (+102)
- Waddle under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Notable MIA Depth Out: None!
Notable TEN Depth Out: WR2, IDL3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Two teams that just feel like Wild Card teams, ya know? Competitive, but not quite there. That may be harsh taking about a team that has won seven in a row (Miami), and they probably deserve more respect than they’ve been getting. I’ll respect it, give me the Dolphins on the road against the INT King👑 Ryan Tannehill.

1:00 PM ET
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-8.5) ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: IND -4, 51.10 Total
Straight Up Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Spread Pick: LV +8.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 45.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Renfrow to score (+200)
- Moreau to score (+370)
- Taylor over 102.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Taylor to score 1st TD (+260)
- LV under 17.5 points (-110)
Notable LV Depth Out: RB2*, TE1, S2*
Notable IND Depth Out: S1*
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: So typically I would count out the Raiders pretty quick if they don’t have Darren Waller, and I’ve been wrong as they’ve won the last two. Call me crazy again then, because I can’t pick against this pesky Colts team. The OLine is healthy (although not as dominant as their reputation), Wentz is playing well and so is their defense. However, I don’t like the -8 at all, so I’ll take Vegas on the spread.

1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16.5) ; O/U 41.5
Model Z Projection: NE -19, 49.34 Total
Straight Up Pick: New England Patriots
Spread Pick: NE -16.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 41.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- NE over 29 points (-110)
- NE -8.5 1st Half (-110)
- Mac Jones over 218.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Meyers to score (+200)
- Meyers 50+ Receiving Yards (+110)
- Henry to score (+125)
Notable JAX Depth Out: RB1, TE1, TE2, LT, LG, RG, IDL2, EDGE3, CB1, S1
Notable NE Depth Out: WR3*,LB2
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: 2+ TD favorite for the Patriots? First time since Brady left. The initial thought to most is going to be “I don’t think the Patriots can put up enough points”, but I bet they will. Look at this JAX inactive list, it’s nuts. Give me Mac by 2+ TDs against the 3rd worst DB group, and 3rd Worst Defense in the model.

1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-13) at NEW YORK JETS ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: TB -17.5, 51.18 Total
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: TB -13⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Ronald Jones to score & TB to win (-107)
- Ronald Jones over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Vaughn to score (+310)
- Antonio Brown 80+ Receiving Yards (+102)
- Michael Carter 50+ Rushing Yards (+168)
- Michael Carter to score (+185)
Notable TB Depth Out: EDGE1, EDGE2, LB1
Notable NYJ Depth Out: RB2, WR1, WR2, TE1, C, LB3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Some brutal inactives on offense for the Jets, not that they had a chance anyways. I’ll take Tampa by two TDs even without two of their top defensive guys (EDGE Shaq Barrett & LB Lavonte David). Todd Bowles revenge game by the way.

1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM ; O/U 44.5
Model Z Projection: PHI -8, 48.02 Total
Straight Up Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Spread Pick: PHI -4.5⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 44.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- PHI -4.5 (-110)
- Jarrett Patterson to score (+115)
- Jarrett Patterson 50+ Rushing Yards (-102)
- Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards (-108)
- Hurts 200+ Passing Yards (-110)
- Hurts over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Notable PHI Depth Out: RB1
Notable WAS Depth Out: RB1, LG, C, RT, CB2, CB3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I simply don’t like this Washington team, and I really don’t like them if RB1 Antonio Gibson as well as 2 of their top 3 corners are out. I like the Eagles -4.5 a good bit here.

1:00 PM ET
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS ; O/U 46
Model Z Projection: LAR -9, 49.09 Total
Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Spread Pick: LAR -6⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 46⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- LAR over 26.5 points (-110)
- Kupp 90+ Receiving Yards & LAR -6 (+162)
- Beckham Jr to score (+110)
- Stafford 300+ Passing Yards (+112)
- Andrews to score (+155)
- LAR -6 (-110)
Notable LAR Depth Out: RB1*, LB2
Notable BAL Depth Out: QB1, LG, EDGE2, CB1
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: The Ravens just can’t bring home the W without Lamar Jackson. They’ve lost four straight, and three of those were [essentially] Lamar-less. In my opinion however, Tyler Huntley hasn’t looked half-bad, and it’s their defense that is the problem. They’re down to practically no serviceable corners, and now have to face a scary Rams offense. I like the Rams by a touchdown, and this Rams offense goes off.

4:05 PM ET
DENVER BRONCOS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-8) ; O/U 45
Model Z Projection: LAC -2.5, 54.26 Total
Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Spread Pick: DEN +8⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Drew Lock over 190.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Javonte Williams over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Notable DEN Depth Out: QB1, WR1*, EDGE1
Notable LAC Depth Out: TE1, EDGE2, LB2, LB3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: The Chargers have been so off-and-on, what a let down. They come in as 7.5 point favorites against a Drew Lock team with no Jerry Jeudy, so it makes sense, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in this Chargers defense who is 22nd in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed. I’ll take the Chargers to win, but Javonte Williams (2022 top-15 fantasy pick, heads up) and the Broncos to keep it close.

4:05 PM ET
HOUSTON TEXANS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-12.5) ; O/U 44
Model Z Projection: SF -13.5, 49.49 Total
Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Spread Pick: HOU +12.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 44⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- HOU +12.5 (-110)
- Deebo Samuel over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Deebo Samuel over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Cooks over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Mills over 230.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Lance to score (+125)
Notable HOU Depth Out: RB1, WR4
Notable SF Depth Out: QB1, IDL3, LB2, LB3, CB2
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Sounds like it’s Trey Lance time in San Fran, but through Jimmy G injury, not by choice. They’re a tough team to figure out in the first place, so add a QB with little experience with a ton of upside to the equation…who freaking knows. Oh, and that this Houston team isn’t awful? Dare I say, 2 game win streak. I’ve hated on HOU QB Davis Mills in the past, but I’m done with that. I think this guy can actually play a little. I can’t give them the win here, but I think Mills will keep it up against a Niners team who is down a few good defenders so I’ll take HOU +12.5.

4:25 PM ET
ARIZONA CARDINALS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) ; O/U 51.5
Model Z Projection: DAL -9.5, 55.69 Total
Straight Up Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Spread Pick: DAL -6.5⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 51.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- DAL -6.5 (-110)
- Prescott over 278.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Elliott over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Cooper over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Cooper to score (+120)
- Murray under 258.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Murray under 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
Notable ARI Depth Out: LT, C, IDL1, EDGE2, EDGE3, CB2, CB3
Notable DAL Depth Out: LB3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Imagine how fun this game would be if the Cardinals were as good as they were earlier this year. Well, they kind of stink now, plus they have everyone out. They now have the 4th worst OLine in the model so I think Micah Parsons moves closer to DPOY consideration. And, they have the 2nd worst CB group in the model, so I think Dak goes off. All that tells me, Cowboys by a touchdown+ no problem.

4:25 PM ET
CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) ; O/U 37.5
Model Z Projection: NO -16.5, 43.81 Total
Straight Up Pick: New Orleans Saints
Spread Pick: NO -6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 37.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- NO total points over 22.5 (-110)
- CAR total points under 15 (-110)
- [2X BET] NO -6.5 (-110)
- NO -10.5 Alt Spread (+150)
- Kamara to score & NO to win (+119)
- Kamara over 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
- Hill 200+ Passing Yards (+118)
- Hill to score (+160)
- Hill over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Notable CAR Depth Out: LT, EDGE1, EDGE2, LB1, CB1, CB2, CB3
Notable NO Depth Out: WR3, TE2, RT
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I absolutely loooove New Orleans in this spot. Taysom Hill is back, they have the #1 Defense in my model, and Carolina has essentially no cornerbacks. The only thing the Panthers have going for them is that Sam Darnold is back. Yay? Cam Newton must have been pretty bad if you’re excited that Sam Darnold has come to save the day. Carolina is on to next year, and the Saints need to work to keep this season alive. NO -6.5, no freaking problem. The model projects -16.5 lol!

4:25 PM ET
DETROIT LIONS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) ; O/U 41.5
Model Z Projection: SEA -12, 53.90 Total
Straight Up Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Spread Pick: SEA -7.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 41.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Wilson over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Wilson over 1.5 Passing TDs (-102)
- Metcalf over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Lockett over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Eskridge to score (+600)
- St. Brown over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- St. Brown to score (+280)
Notable DET Depth Out: QB1, RG, LB2*, CB1*
Notable SEA Depth Out: LG, RT, CB2, CB3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tim Boyle vs Russell Wilson. This used to set up the blowout summary, but this Seattle team has been underwhelming and this Detroit team has shown some fight. Detroit is the 2nd worst in the model because they just don’t have the talent, but they’ve played hard and have knocked themselves out of the #1 pick in the draft. Congrats. The return of D’Andre Swift makes this pick tough, along with the fact that both teams are already eliminated and anything can happen, but I’ll take the Seahawks -7.5 at home in what could and probably will be Russell Wilson’s last home game in Seattle. Plus, Detroit is dead last at the CB position in the model with Oruwariye on the IR, so I don’t see Wilson having a problem in this one.

8:20 PM ET
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13.5) ; O/U 42.5
Model Z Projection: GB -10.5, 54.00 Total
Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers
Spread Pick: GB -13.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 42.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Dillon to score (+125)
- Jones over 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
- Adams over 88.5 Receiving Yards & to score (+165)
- Rodgers 300+ Passing Yards (+225)
- Rodgers over 2.5 Passing TDs (+144)
Notable MIN Depth Out: QB1, WR2, C, IDL2, EDGE1, LB3, CB2
Notable GB Depth Out: LT, RT, IDL3
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Sean Mannion instead of Kellen Mond as the Minny QB this week, interesting choice. We all know that Green Bay wants that Home Field advantage, so they won’t be holding back this week, but at the same time, Minnesota needs this one to stay in the hunt. Unfortunately, the inactive list is too long for Minnesota to compete. Can they keep it within two touchdowns though? Eh, I’ll say no because I think Rodgers wants that MVP, but I don’t feel very confident.