NFL WEEK 4 — Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football, let’s go!! Picks, Plays and Evaluation from me below. Guest pickers at the bottom of the article. Enjoy!
8:20 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) ; O/U 46
Model Z Projection: 27–25 CIN (54.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Pick: JAX +7.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 46⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Ja’Marr Chase to score (-110)
- Ja’Marr Chase Over 4.5 Receptions (-146)
- Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+124)
- Trevor Lawrence NO Interception (+164)
- Robinson to rush for 60+ Yards (+126)
- Burrow Over 8.5 Rush Yards (+110)
Top DFS Matchups: Joe Burrow ($5,900), Ja’Marr Chase ($5,900), Marvin Jones ($5,400)
Notable Inactives: JAX IDL Roy Robertson-Harris, JAX K Josh Lambo, JAX CB2 Tre Herndon, CIN S Jessie Bates III, CIN WR2* Tee Higgins, CIN RG Xavier Su’a-Filo (Doubtful), CIN CB2 Chidobe Awuzoe (Doubtful)
Zack’s Quick Rundown: I’d be curious to see when the last time the Bengals were 7+ point favorites (someone look that up and put it in the comments. You’ll get the honor of being a guest picker on Sunday 🤩). These are two teams that are on a different trend than I see them going. The perception is that the Jags are absolute garbage and that the Bengals are actually good…and I think I disagree with both of those statements contrary to their 3-game starts. Both teams have the talent and I think they both belong in that 27th best team in the league range, but neither are quite really ready to compete. With the injuries to the CB2s on both sides, and the offensive talent on both sides as well, I see this as a high passing game all around. But, if Jacksonville is going to win the game, I think the key is getting James Robinson the ball. We’ll see if Urban decides to do that. I think the Bengals win, Chase and Burrow have a nice game, but the Jags come back from the dead and cover because losing Star Safety Jessie Bates III is pretty dang significant.
Position Faceoff: 8–5 CINCINNATI BENGALS
QB: JAX 20TH / CIN 16TH
RB: JAX 11TH / CIN 9TH
WR: JAX 18TH / CIN 21ST
TE: JAX 24TH / CIN 27TH
OL: JAX 11TH / CIN 27TH
IDL: JAC 26TH / CIN 6TH
EDGE: JAC 25TH / CIN 15TH
LB: JAX 8TH / CIN 27TH
CB: JAX 29TH / CIN 28TH
S: JAX 32ND / CIN 28TH
OVERALL: JAX 29TH / CIN 27TH
OFFENSE: JAX 24TH / CIN 29TH
DEFENSE: JAX 30TH / CIN 26TH
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kevin Morgan (🐆Jags Fan🐆): Over 46.5 (-105), JAX +7.5 (-112)
Justin Gunsaulus 🐆Jags Fan🐆): Robinson rushes for 100+ Yards (+630), Mixon to score 2x (+370), Burrow to score [non passing] (+450)
Killian Vallieu (🐅Bengals Fan🐅): Ja’Marr Chase to score (+100), Under 46 (-115)
Lee Page (🐅Bengals Fan🐅): Boyd to score (+125), Mixon to score (-160)
Garrett Herr: Burrow to throw for 300+ Yards / CIN to win (+265)