NFL Week 5: Sunday Picks & Plays!

Had a super hot start to the week with the Thursday Night Game, let’s keep it going on this Sunday Slate. Same as last week, I have another huge 11 x7’s Round Robin to win an easy $675,255 😋. These bets are identified with a 🐧 icon. If you “like/clap” this article or repost my story on to yours and I win it, you each get $500! That Round Robin screenshot is at the bottom of the article if you’re interested in tracking how it goes. Hit me up if you’d like to be a guest picker for the Monday game!

9:30 AM ET (🎡in London🎡)
ATLANTA FALCONS (-3) vs NEW YORK JETS ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: 26–24 NYJ (54.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: New York Jets
Spread Pick: NYJ +3 (-110)⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- NYJ ML (+126)
- Pitts to score (+160)
- 🐧Pitts to score 2x (+1200)
- Pitts 100+ Receiving Yards (+410)
- Corey Davis 100+ Receiving Yards (+410)
Top DFS Matchups: Kyle Pitts ($4,700), Corey Davis ($5,600)
Notable Inactives: ATL S Erik Harris, ATL WR1 Calvin Ridley, ATL WR2 Russell Gage, NYJ TE1 Tyler Kroft
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I think this is my favorite game to bet on the slate, and it just happens to be the London game. No Ridley or Gage for the Falcons and that’s the storyline of the day I think, but I think that means it’s time for Kyle Pitts’ breakout game. I also looooove Corey Davis this week (most weeks to be honest), as ATL is 31st vWR in the Model. I’d like to look at a ATL receiver this week as well (NYJ 29th vWR) but I don’t think I can trust WR1 Zaccheaus to be that guy. Typically, these London games are sloppy so I could be dead wrong on anyone having a big game here, but the matchups are way too good. I’ll take NYJ with the points and I think they can win the game outright.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Shane Randel: NYJ +3 (-118)
Killian Vallieu: NYJ ML (+126)
Seth Landry: Under 45.5 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) at CINCINNATI BENGALS ; O/U 50.5
Model Z Projection: 24–23 CIN (53.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Pick: CIN +3⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 50.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Tyler Boyd Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Boyd Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
- Burrow Over 23.5 Completions (-110)
- Burrow Under 36.5 Longest Pass (-110)
- CIN ML (+124)
Top DFS Matchups: Davante Adams ($8,200), Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800), Tyler Boyd ($5,300)
Notable Inactives: GB CB1 Jaire Alexander, GB C Josh Myers, GB WR2 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, CIN RG Xavier Su’a-Filo
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Ah jeez, am I really about to start the article off with back to back upsets? Yeah. This Packers defense is beat up right now and will be without their two best defensive players in CB Jaire Alexander and EDGE ZaDarius Smith. I will say though, that even without those guys, they’re the #14 defense in the model. You’ll need a good defense against this hot Bengals team. The lack of corners I think will be the factor, but their great safeties I think can contain the deep ball. Give me the Bengals to win outright, and Tyler Boyd as the top receiver as he’s the short route guy.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Josh Prather: Burrow to throw INT (+105)
Shane Randel: GB -3 (-104), Aaron Jones to score (-185)
Kylepbrockman: GB -3 (-104), Chase to score (+150)

1:00 PM ET
DETROIT LIONS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-10) ; O/U 49.5
Model Z Projection: 33–24 (94.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Spread Pick: MIN -10⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 49.5⭐⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- 🐧Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (+106)
- Jefferson to score (-125)
- Jefferson to score 2x (+550)
- [2X BET] Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions (-138)
- Cousins Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+154)
- Cousins 300+ Passing Yards (+134)
- Conklin Over 3.5 Receptions & a touchdown (+505)
- Osborn Over 3.5 Receptions (+116)
- MIN -10 (-110)
Top DFS Matchups: Kirk Cousins ($6,500), Justin Jefferson ($7,700), KJ Osborn ($3,800) D’Andre Swift ($6,100), TJ Hockenson ($5,500), Jamaal Willaims ($5,200)
Notable Inactives: DET LB Romeo Okwara, DET C Frank Ragnow, MIN IDL Michael Pierce
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Another game that I will be all over! The Lions are the worst team in the model, and the worst team in the league in my opinion and I don’t really think it’s close. They lose one of their top players to injury every single week, and this week happened to be their superstar Center. LT Decker might come back from the IR though so that’s good at least. The Model projects this game as a 14.5 point spread, so that locks up the Vikings as my survivor pick and an easy cover here. If I was worried about anything, it’s that the Vikings don’t have their anchor on the DLine, IDL Michael Pierce. Cousins should have a field day though, take your pick on a receiver (I’ll be riding with Jefferson) because you can’t name more than one Detroit corner… if that. I also like Cook if he plays, and even TE Tyler Conklin!
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Tyler Mallams: Dalvin Cook to score 2x (+430)

1:00 PM ET
DENVER BRONCOS (-1.5) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS ; O/U 39.5
Model Z Projection: 23–21 DEN (53.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Denver Broncos
Spread Pick: DEN -1.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 39.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Najee Harris to score (-110)
- Najee Harris 70+ Rushing Yards (+172)
- 🐧Najee Harris 100+ Rushing Yards (+550)
- Tim Patrick 60+ Receiving Yards (+122)
Top DFS Matchups: Najee Harris ($6,900), Tim Patrick ($4,700)
Notable Inactives: PIT CB2 Cameron Sutton, PIT WR4 James Washington
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Tough game here. Not a fun one, but a tough one. It sounds like Teddy will play coming off a concussion which is good, but it sounds like WR1 Sutton might not as he sprained his ankle on Friday. Not confident in picking a winner here, but I am very confident in a Najee Harris big game. “Against the Denver Defense?!” you ask? It’s their secondary that is elite, but the interior of that defense is nothing too special. Plus, with Big Ben looking like a statue in the pocket these days, the best thing to do is to hand it off or dump it off to your 1st Round RB. Najee is averaging 24.5 touches over the last two weeks and I expect that to continue because you don’t want to pass against this team. This game was a toss up for me, but the injury to PIT CB2 Sutton was the tiebreaker for me.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Shane Randel: Over 39.5 (-110)
Josh Prather: Bridgewater Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+115)
Killian Vallieu: Najee Harris Over 4.5 Receptions (-138)
Tyler Mallams: Najee Harris (+290)

1:00 PM ET
MIAMI DOLPHINS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) ; O/U 47.5
Model Z Projection: 29–20 TB (88.70% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: TB -9.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 47.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Waddle Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Fournette to score (-130)
- 🐧Fournette 75+ Rushing Yards & TB to win (+285)
- Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Chris Godwin Over 4.5 Receptions (-172)
Top DFS Matchups: Jaylen Waddle ($4,800), Leonard Fournette ($5,200), Chris Godwin ($6,300)
Notable Inactives: MIA WR2* Will Fuller, MIA C* Michael Dieter, TB S Antoine Winfield Jr, TB TE Rob Gronkowski, TB CB1* Carlton Davis
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Someone asked me the other day who I thought the best team in the league is, and I don’t think I have an answer. The model says Tampa, but with their cornerback injuries, I don’t know if I can get with that. Although, I don’t think I can say the Bills, Cardinals, Rams or Chiefs are better overall. Close though, and a good debate! I’ll tell you who’s not in the convo, the Dolphins. They are 31st in YPG and 31st in PPG on offense, then 24th in and 25th on defense that is supposed to be so good. They can’t outscore Tampa, plain and simple. I’ll take the points with Tampa at home. Fun fact for ya here: Tampa is 1st in Rushing Yards (and TDs) allowed, but last in Passing Yards allowed lol. Weird.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kylepbrockman: Over 47.5 (-110)

1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM ; O/U 43.5
Model Z Projection: 23–22 NO (51.30% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Washington Football Team
Spread Pick: WAS +2.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 43.5⭐
Zack’s Plays: N/A
Top DFS Matchups: N/A
Notable Inactives: NO C Erik McCoy, NO LT Terron Armstead, WAS WR4* Dyami Brown, WAS TE1 Logan Thomas, WAS LB Jon Bostic
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Ew, a handful of injuries on each side that would normally make me sway to the other side for. Being without your LT and C (Saints) has to hurt more though. I’m torn on who to pick really, but I think I’m going to go with Washington. The Model says Saints -1.5, but I don’t see it. I think this Washington DLine led by Chase Young takes advantage of the beat up OLine and makes Winston uncomfortable back there. Give me the points with Washington, and it’ll be a game time decision for me on the Straight Up pick.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Tyler Mallams: Alvin Kamara (+410)

1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: 24–23 PHI (50.00% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Spread Pick: PHI +3⭐
O/U Pick: Under 45.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- PHI ML (+138)
- Goedert to score (+250)
- Goedert Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Ertz to score (+390)
Top DFS Matchups: DJ Moore ($7,500), Quez Watkins ($3,600)
Notable Inactives: PHI RT Lane Johnson, CAR LT Cameron Erving, CAR RB Christian McCaffrey (Doubtful), CAR LB Shaq Thompson
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: The Panthers will be without their best players on both sides of the ball in this one. That’s basically enough for me to go with Philly here. Carolina has been impressive for sure, but this is a surprisingly tough matchup as Philly has a nice DLine (led by Cox, Hargrave & Sweat) and cornerback group (led by Slay, Nelson & Maddox). Carolina has some nice pieces on defense too, but no Thompson is big in my opinion. I’ll go Philly +3, and probably straight up as well.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Shane Randel: DJ Moore to score (+110)
Chasse Duplantis: Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-158)

1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE TITANS (-4.5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS ; O/U 48.5
Model Z Projection: 30–27 TEN (67.30% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread Pick: JAX +4.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Tannehill Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Lawrence Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- 🐧Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-102)
- Lawrence to throw 2+ TDs & JAX to win (+340)
- Lawrence to score [non-passing] (+310)
- Shenault to score (+185)
- Shenault 60+ Receiving Yards (-104)
- Shenault Over 5.5 Receptions (+116)
- Robinson to score (+105)
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- JAX +4.5 (-110)
Top DFS Matchups: Derrick Henry ($9,000), Ryan Tannehill ($6,400), Laviska Shenault ($4,800)
Notable Inactives: JAX RG AJ Cann, JAX IDL Roy Robertson-Harris, JAX WR DJ Chark, TEN WR2 Julio Jones, TEN RT Ty Sambrailo, TEN EDGE Bud Dupree, TEN IDL Larrell Murchison, TEN LB Jayon Brown
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: The Titans take the cake for most injuries this week I think. Typically I would say “luckily they play the Jaguars who are 29th in the Model”, but this is a division game and anything can happen here. I think I’ve decided this is a toss up game, so I’ll definitely take the Jags spread, and I think I’m taking the Jags to win as well. The Jets pulled off the upset last week while the Titans were shorthanded, and I think the Jags can too. I can see Lawrence sling it a little against this weak secondary, with Shenault being the new go-to.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Chasse Duplantis: TEN -4.5 (-110), Henry to score 2x (+240)
Josh Prather: Henry to score 2x (+240)

1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7.5) at HOUSTON TEXANS ; O/U 38.5
Model Z Projection: 28–19 (88.70% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: New England Patriots
Spread Pick: NE -7.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 38.5⭐⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- 🐧NE ML / Over 39.5 (+155)
- NE -7.5 (-110)
- Hunter Henry Over 2.5 Recetions (-138)
- Hunter Henry Over 29.5 Receiving yards (-110)
- Jonnu Smith Over 2.5 Receptions (-138)
- Mac Jones Over 23.5 Completions (-102)
- Mac Jones Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+112)
Top DFS Matchups: Hunter Henry ($3,700)
Notable Inactives: HOU LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, HOU IDL Ross Blacklock, NE RT Trent Brown, NE CB3* Jalen Mills, NE LT Isaiah Wynn, NE LG Mike Onwenu, NE RG Shaq Mason, NE RT Trent Brown
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: I lied. The Patriots have the most guys out. In fact, they’ll be without 4 of their 5 starters on the OLine. But somehow (well, we know why), they are still -7.5 favorites. Crazy. The Texans have a handful of bright spots on this team believe it or not, but unfortunately for them, one of the bad spots happens to be the quarterback position. I think Davis Mills is undoubtedly the worst starting QB in the league right now, and he gets to face the #4 team in Passing Yards allowed and #2 in Passing TDs allowed. That all contributes into the Model Z making the Patriots 3rd vQB. As crazy as it sounds to pick a team with a brand new OLine to win by more than a touchdown, I feel pretty dang good about it (Model Z projects 12.5). I’d like to have Harris go off here, but with a new Oline, idk.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Seth Landry: HOU ML (+315)
Tyler Mallams: NE -7.5 (-110)

4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO BEARS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-5.5) ; O/U 45.5
Model Z Projection: 27–22 LV (80.20% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Spread Pick: LV -5.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Carr 325+ Passing Yards (+235)
- Waller to score (+110)
- 🐧Waller to score 2x & LV to win (+900)
- Edwards Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Edwards Over 2.5 Receptions (-155)
Top DFS Matchups: Henry Ruggs ($5,600), Hunter Renfrow ($4,900), Bryan Edwards ($3,800), Derek Carr ($6,100)
Notable Inactives: CHI IDL Akiem Hicks, CHI RB David Montgomery, LV CB2 Trayvon Mullen Jr, LV CB4* Damon Arnette
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Ugh I hate this Chicago CB group. To be honest, if they had another good corner or two, I might pick them here straight up. But I think Carr & Waller will pick them apart in this game as they are essentially full strength on offense. The loss of Montgomery for a handful of weeks hurts Chicago as well, but I think Damien Williams can step in and fill the void. For Vegas, the loss of CBs Mullen and Arnette does make me a little nervous, but I don’t think Fields is ready enough to come out here and throw 300+ yet on anyone. I’ll take the Raiders to handle this spread, but with low confidence.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Shane Randel: LV -5.5 (-110)

4:05 PM ET
CLEVELAND BROWNS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5) ; O/U 47.5
Model Z Projection: 28–24 CLE (68.10% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Cleveland Browns
Spread Pick: CLE +2.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Under 47.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Nick Chubb to score (-125)
- Nick Chubb to score 1st (+550)
- Nick Chubb score 2x (+550)
- Nick Chubb Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
- 🐧Nick Chubb 100+ Rushing Yards & CLE win (+370)
- Nick Chubb 125+ Rushing Yards (+390)
- [2X BET] CLE ML (+112)
Top DFS Matchups: Keenan Allen ($6,500), Austin Hooper ($3,200), Nick Chubb ($6,700)
Notable Inactives: LAC IDL Justin Jones, LAC LB Kenneth Murray, CLE CB3 Greg Newsome, CLE LT Jedrick Wills
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Oh wow, this is one of the bigger differences in spreads from the Model Z to the real thing for the season. Model Z projects a 5 point favorite for Cleveland, while Fanduel shows LAC -2.5. The main factor for this has to be the Baker Mayfield injury situation, but it sounds like he’s fine, just not 100%. Now, the Browns have that guy Nick Chubb who has not got the respect he deserves in my opinion for this year. He’s averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game with 3 Touchdowns in 4 games. Well, they play the Chargers this week and they are 29th in Rush Yards allowed and are 29th vRB in the Model. I expect a big game from Chubb, and a “upset” win on the road.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Chasse Duplantis: LAC -2.5 (-110)
Brittany & Finley Nicol: LAC -2.5 (-110) “No way someone is playing with a torn labrum”

4:25 PM ET
NEW YORK GIANTS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) ; O/U 52.5
Model Z Projection: 29–27 DAL (59.40% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Spread Pick: NYG +7⭐
O/U Pick: Over 52.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Elliott to score & 50+ Rushing Yards (-115)
- 🐧Barkley 60+ Rushing Yards (+114)
- Barkley Longest Rush Over 13.5 (-110)
- Toney Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
- Toney 60+ Receiving Yards (+162)
- Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
- Schultz to score (+240)
- Daniel Jones 275+ Passing Yards (-104)
- Over 52.5 (-110)
Top DFS Matchups: Dalton Schultz ($4,400), Kadarius Toney ($4,000)
Notable Inactives: NYG LG Ben Bredeson, NYG S Jabrill Peppers, NYG WR2 Sterling Shepard, NYG WR3 Darius Slayton
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: Well, if you actually read the article last week, you know that I said if Toney doesn’t perform, he’s banned from the article. Well, he did great! So I’m going back to the well on this one with a big game from Toney with the WR2 role against a poor Cowboys cornerback group (as long as TDiggs doesn’t lock you up). Buuutttt, when it comes to picking a winner, this Giants defense is not as good as we all thought at the beginning of the year, and the Cowboys offense shouldn’t have a problem against them so I’m leaning Cowboys to win. The Model shows only a 3 point spread though, so this touchdown spread is scary. I don’t love it, so I guess I’ll take the points with the Giants because I can see a shootout. And a shootout means a big player prop game.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Kylepbrockman: Under 52.5 (-110)
Josh Prather: Prescott Over 25.5 completions (+100)
Killian Vallieu: Jones & Prescott Over 549.5 Passing Yards (-110)

4:25 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5.5) ; O/U 48.5
Model Z Projection: 26–24 ARI (64.30% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Spread Pick: SF +5.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Deebo Samuel to score (+125)
- 🐧Deebo Samuel 100+ Receiving Yards (+300)
- Trey Lance to score [non passing] (+170)
- Trey Lance Over 263.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-110)
- Trey Lance Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+134)
- SF ML (+194)
Top DFS Matchups: Deebo Samuel ($7,100), Trey Lance ($5,700)
Notable Inactives: ARI CB1 Byron Murphy, SF TE1 George Kittle, SF CB1 K’Waun Williams, SF QB1* Jimmy Garoppolo
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: A huuuuuge underrated inactive for this game is ARI CB1 Byron Murphy. That cornerback group was already sketchy, but losing their “star” CB1 makes them legit not good for this game. Fortunately for the Cardinals, the Niners have more big injuries with their TE1, CB1 and technically their QB1 out. That means it’s Trey Lance time and I don’t know how I feel about that. He put up good box score numbers last week, but if you watched, he didn’t look very good. Granted, he came in in the middle of the game so that’s unfair to really make an assessment on the kid, so let’s see how he does against a weak CB group from my perspective. The SF Oline looks strong and healthy and they’ll need it against Watt and Jones, and will also need it to block for the rookie in the pocket and as a runner. Ugh, I kind of like the upset here guys. Gimme the Niners points, sprinkle some ML in the plays list, and I have to decide last minute on the game pick.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Killian Vallieu: SF +5 (-110)
Brittany & Finley Nicol: SF +5 (-110) Finley chose the new purple toy that represented SF, instead of the ol’ faithful blue toy that represented ARI.

8:15 PM ET
BUFFALO BILLS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) ; O/U 56.5
Model Z Projection: 30–25 BUF (70.70% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: BUF +3⭐
O/U Pick: Over 56.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Zack Moss to score (+135)
- Zack Moss to score 2x (+1000)
- 🐧Zack Moss Over 51.5 Rushing + Receiving yards (-110)
- Josh Allen 300+ Passing Yards (-120)
Top DFS Matchups: Zack Moss ($5,500)
Notable Inactives: None
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: No notable inactives (as of now) on either side? Weird. Well, another game where the Model spread is pretty far off from the Vegas spread as the Model projects BUF -6. Wow. And the simple reason is that this Bills team is complete, and the Chiefs are not. Sure, the Chiefs have the top 3 players on the field (this is oddly similar to the Rams fyi), but from a position comp standpoint, the Bills have the advantage 6–3–1. Now, this is primetime Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about here and they are at full strength for the most part. I think I’ll be going with the Buffalo points, and some Mahomes magic to win it at the end in a great Sunday Night game in Arrowhead.
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Seth Landry: Over 56.5 (-110)
Tyler Mallams: Josh Allen 325+ Passing Yards (+146)
Kylepbrockman: BUF +3 (-110)