WEEK 5 — Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football time! Picks, Plays and Evaluation from me below. Guest pickers at the bottom of the article. Enjoy!
8:15 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7) ; O/U 46.5
Model Z Projection: 26–22 BAL (70.70% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Spread Pick: BAL -7⭐
O/U Pick: Over 46.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Mark Andrews to score 2x (+850)
- Jackson Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-102)
- Murray to score / BAL to win (+185)
- Watkins Over 3.5 Receptions (-106)
- Pittman Over 4.5 Receptions (-102)
- Jackson Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Wentz Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Pascal to score (+270)
- [2X BET] Pascal over 3.5 Receptions (+132)
- Pascal 100+ Receiving Yards (+1200)
- Pascal most receiving yards in the game (+980)
Top DFS Matchups: Lamar Jackson ($7,600), Marquise Brown ($5,800), Mark Andrews ($5,400), Jack Doyle ($2,800)
Notable Inactives: IND RT Braden Smith, IND LG Quenten Nelson, IND CB3 Rock Ya-Sin, IND EDGE Kwity Paye, BAL LT Ronnie Stanley, BAL WR4* Rashod Bateman
Zack’s “Quick” Rundown: This is the 3rd Primetime game in 5 weeks for the Ravens, right? Gotta love Lamar! I think he keeps it going tonight against the Colts who have been less than impressive. They are however, T-1 in Rushing Touchdowns allowed, but 30th in Passing Touchdowns allowed. For the Ravens, Lamar has surpassed the 200 yard passing mark in all of their games, and went over 300 last game against a stingy Denver secondary. Being without LT Ronnie Stanley again hurts, but I’ll offset that with the loss of rookie EDGE Kwity Paye for Indy. I personally like Carson Wentz more than most, but this Baltimore defense will be yet another test for him. I’ll take Baltimore to win, the over and BAL -7 because the only matchups I like according to the model are in favor of Baltimore, which are Indy’s vTE and vQB (23rd and 26th). For props & DFS, I like Andrews and Lamar to be the focal points for that reason. Also, I went crazy a little bit on Zach Pascal props because, one, he’s a Zach (granted, ZacK’s are far superior), and also because he’s had 5+ targets each game which is great for his value, and he also leads the team in red zone targets this season.
Position Faceoff: 11–2 BALTIMORE RAVENS
QB: IND 23RD / BAL 5TH
RB: IND 6TH / BAL 28TH
WR: IND 28TH / BAL 22ND
TE:IND 13TH / BAL 3RD
OL: IND 22ND / BAL 16TH
IDL: IND 9TH / BAL 4TH
EDGE: IND 27TH / BAL 16TH
LB: IND 4TH / BAL 23RD
CB: IND 21ST / BAL 8TH
S: IND 24TH / BAL 12TH
OVERALL: IND 25TH / BAL 11TH
OFFENSE: IND 20TH / BAL 12TH
DEFENSE: IND 22ND / BAL 7TH
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Robert Perry: BAL -7 (-110), Over 46 (-110), Jackson to score [non-passing] (-130)
Zach Matthews: Andrews to score, Under 46.5 (-110), BAL -3.5 [alt spread] (-185)
Brad Nicol: BAL 7- (-110), Over 46 (-110), Taylor to score & 60+ Rushing Yards (+199), Wentz Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-110), Jackson Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Kyle Hinstorff: Wentz over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-105), Jackson Over 10.5 Carries (-105), BAL -7 (-110)