WEEK 7— NFL Sunday Picks & Plays

Zack Nicol
6 min readOct 24, 2021

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Busy weekend, so I apologize in advance, but no Round Robin or Summaries for the games for this article. Enjoy the picks and guest pickers though. Let me know if you’d like to be a guest picker for Monday!

1:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: 27–23 GB (72.40% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Green Bay Packers
Spread Pick: WAS +8.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 47.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Lazard 50+ Receiving Yards (+250)
- Lazard over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
- Lazard to score (+240)
- Dyami Brown Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Ricky Seals-Jones Over 3.5 Receptions & 35.5 Receiving Yards (+210)
Notable Inactives: WAS RT Sam Cosmi, WA RG Brandon Scherff, WAS WR2 Curtis Samuel, GB C Josh Meyers, CB LT David Bakhtiari
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Keith Sullivan:
GB -8.5 (-110)
Craig Ebinger: GB -8.5 (-110)

1:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) at TENNESSEE TITANS ; O/U 57.5

Model Z Projection: 31–30 KC (52.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Spread Pick: KC-4⭐
O/U Pick: Over 57.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Hardman to score (+170)
- Hardman over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Hill 100+ Receiving Yards (+118)
- Hill to score 2x (+480)
- Kelce to 100+ Receiving Yards & to score (+276)
Notable Inactives: KC LB Anthony Hitchens, TEN LT Taylor Lewan, TEN LB Monty Rice, TEN CB2 Caleb Farley, TEN CB3 Kristian Fulton
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Ryan Mead:
Henry 100+ Rushing Yards & a TD (-120)
Josh Prather: TEN ML (+188), Henry Under 125.5 (-114)
Craig Ebinger: TEN +4 (-110)
Cindi Sullivan: Mahomes 3+ TDs & KC to win (+144)
Murphy Sullivan🐶: Henry to rush for 2x TDs & TEN Win (+520)

1:05 PM ET
ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS ; O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: 25–25 MIA (50.00% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Miami Dolphins
Spread Pick: MIA +1.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 48.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Myles Gaskin to score (+120)
- Myles Gaskin Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Mike Davis to score (+135)
- Mike Davis Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Jaylen Waddle Over whatever his total is!!!!! (-110)
- Gesicki Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Notable Inactives: ATL EDGE Dante Fowler, ATL RT Kaleb McGary, MIA WR1* DeVante Parker (Dubtful)
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Craig Ebinger: ATL -1.5 (-110)

1:05 PM ET
NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: 26–21 NE (79.10% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: New England Patriots
Spread Pick: NE -7⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Damien Harris to score (+110)
- Damien Harris to score 2x (+800)
- Damien Harris Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Jonnu Smith to score (+300)
- Jonnu Smith Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Bourne Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Agholor Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Mac Jones Over 22.5 Completions (-102)
Notable Inactives: NYJ LB CJ Mosley (Doubtful), NYJ TE1 Tyler Kroft, NE CB2 Jonathan Jones, NE CB4* Shaun Wade, NE EDGE Chase Winovich
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Ryan Mead:
Under 42.5 (-110)
Keith Sullivan: NE -7 (-110)
Cindi Sullivan: NE -7 (-110)

1:05 PM ET
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: 25–22 CAR (59.40% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Carolina Panthers
Spread Pick: CAR -3⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Chuba Hubbard Over 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Notable Inactives: CAR CB1 Stephon Gilmore, CAR LT Cameron Erving, CAR LB Shaq Thompson, CAR WR3 Terrace Marshall Jr, CAR WR4 Branon Zylstra
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Keith Sullivan:
NYG ML (+130)
Craig Ebinger: CAR -3 (-110)
Cindi Sullivan: NYG ML (+130)
Finley Nicol: Chuba Hubbard Over 93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

1:05 PM ET
CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5) ; O/U 45.5

Model Z Projection: 24–23 CIN (51.30% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Spread Pick: CIN +6.5⭐⭐⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 45.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- CIN ML (+215)
- CIN +6.5 (-110)
Notable Inactives: BAL RB2 Latavius Murray, BAL WR2 Sammy Watkins, BAL LT Ronnie Stanley, BAL LG Ben Cleveland, BAL CB1 Trae Waynes
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Ryan Mead:
CIN +6.5 (-110), Burrow 500+ Passing Yards (+205)
Josh Prather: Jackson to score (-115)
Craig Ebinger: CIN +6.5 (-110)
Brittany Nicol: CIN ML (+215)
Finley Nicol🐶: Ja’Marr Chase to have most receiving yards in game (+235), Chase to score 2x (+1200)

4:05 PM ET
PHILADEPHIA EAGLES at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-2.5) ; O/U 48.5

Model Z Projection: 24–23 LV (52.50% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Spread Pick: LV -2.5⭐
O/U Pick: Under 48.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Under 48.5 (-110)
- Carr & Hurts to both throw INTs (+227)
Notable Inactives: PHI S Anthony Harris, LV TE1 Darren Waller (Doubtful)
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Josh Prather:
PHI ML (+126)
Craig Ebinger: LV -2.5 (-110)
Finley Nicol🐶: LV -2.5 (-110)

4:05 PM ET
DETROIT LIONS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-15.5) ; O/U 50.5

Model Z Projection: 33–24 LAR (98.10% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Spread Pick: LAR -15.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 50.5⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Darrell Henderson Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Khalif Raymond 50+ Receiving Yards (+108)
- Tyler Higbee to score (+150)
- Tyler Higbee to score 2x (+1100))
Notable Inactives: DET LT Taylor Decker
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Ryan Mead:
Over 50.5 (-110)
Craig Ebinger: LAR -15.5 (-110)
Brittany Nicol: LAR -15.5 (-110)
Murphy Sullivan🐶: DET +15.5 (-110)

4:25 PM ET
HOUSTON TEXANS at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-17.5) ; O/U 47.5

Model Z Projection: 30–22 (92.40% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Spread Pick: HOU -17.5⭐⭐
O/U Pick: Over 47.5⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Mark Ingram to score (+270)
- James Conner to score (+115)
- Chase Edmonds Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Notable Inactives: ARI EDGE Chandler Jones, IDL Rashard Larence, IDL Corey Peters, ARI C Rodney Hudson
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Josh Prather:
James Conner to score (+135)
Brittany Nicol: ARI -17.5 (-110)

4:25 PM ET
CHICAGO BEARS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-11.5) ; O/U 47

Model Z Projection: 30–22 TB (90.00% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread Pick: CHI +11.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 47⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Ronald Jones Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Evans and Godwin both to score (+304)
- Evans to score 2x (+550)
- Godwin to score 2x (+650)
- A Robinson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- A Robinson to score (+195)
- Mooney Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Mooney Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
- Cole Kmet Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Cole Kmet Over 3.5 Receptions (+116)
Notable Inactives: CHI IDL Akiem Hicks, CHI TE2 Jimmy Graham, CHI S Tashaun Gipson St., CHI S Deon Bush, CHI EDGE Robert Quinn, TB CB2* Richard Sherman, TB LB Lavonte David, TB WR3* Antonio Brown, TB TE1 Rob Gronkowski
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Josh Prather:
Herbert to score (+120)
Cindi Sullivan: Brady 3+ TDs & TB to win (+180)
Murphy Sullivan🐶: CHI ML (+500)

8:20 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-4.5) ; O/U 42.5

Model Z Projection: 26–24 SF (65.80% Chance to win)
Straight Up Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Spread Pick: SF -4.5⭐
O/U Pick: Over 42.5⭐⭐⭐
Zack’s Plays:
- Brandon Aiyuk to score (+175)
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- [2X BET] Jimmy Garoppolo Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- [2X BET] Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+144)
Notable Inactives: IND S Julian Blackmon, IND WR2* TY Holton, IND CB, IND CB3* Rock Ya-Sin, IND RT Braden Smith, IND WR3* Parris Campbell, SF IDL Maurice Hurst, SF IDL Javon Kinlaw, SF QB2* Trey Lance
🎁SPECIAL GUEST PICKERS🎁
Craig Ebinger: IND +4.5 (-110)
Brittany Nicol: Jimmy Garoppolo 250+ Passing Yards & SF to win (+340)

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Zack Nicol

Geaux Tigers. Go Mavs. Go Pats. Go Stars. Go Rangers. Go BlueClaws.